Just in case you didn't notice — just in case you are too busy — rightly — being wrapped up in your outrage and good works, I wanted to take a moment to let you in on a little secret: WE'RE WINNING.
Now, before you go all Luke and start whooping inside the Millennium Falcon "I got one! I got one!" and I have to go all Han and be like "Don't get cocky kid! This ain't like dusting crops!" let me remind you that my little summation is based entirely on you maintaining your level of righteous indignation and doing far more this election year than you've ever done before. Marathons are won and lost in the final mile, and we're *so* in a marathon with the forces of evil this year.
But back to the winning, you say?
Yeah, I'll say it again. We're winning, my friends, and right now, barring the proverbial October Surprise, we're going to win big on Election Day.
As a matter of fact, we're going to win so big here in Washington State that it's going to be bright blue. Washington is going to be so fucking blue on Nov.2nd that you're going to need sunglasses to look at the left side of the freaking map.
But it's more than that. Kerry is going to win, and I'm going to go out on a crazy-ass limb and bet that he wins with at least 350 electoral votes. But wait! There's even more! We're going to take back Congress. Both houses.
How can I be so wildly optimistic? Well, I'm looking at trends and subtext, and there are a number of reasons why I think so:
- The polls are wrong. Even though there seems to be a daily deluge of weird poll numbers — USA Today suddenly has Bush up by 8 — there is one thing you can count on: all these polls are wrong. First of all, let's note that only one pollster, John Zogby, was even close to right in 2000, and his battleground polls are trending our way. Aside from Zogby, though, there are a lot of folks out there using bad methodology — frankly, damn near criminal methodology.
Everyone knows that Gallup is a pollster, one with a long and illustrious history in our country. But they've been co-opted by a right-wing agenda, and are trying to spin public opinion with fake polling results. How?
Well, part of what every pollster does is create a model for how they think the turnout is going to look. This is supposed to be based on logic and research, but frankly, most will tell you it's guesswork. Gallup created a voter turnout model for this upcoming election that was 40% Republican, 33% Democrat, and 28% Independent. So every time they called to ask people's opinions, they called until they had called 40% republicans, and so on, to match their model. This resulted in a HUGE over sampling of Republicans, because Republican turnout has NEVER hit 40% historically. In fact, it's never exceeded 35%. So every time Gallup did a poll that had a huge Bush lead, it was basically fake. When you go back and adjust their polls for a more rational turnout model, it turns out that the race was tied, or Kerry was slightly ahead. Disinformation is alive and well in the United States-thanks, Gallup.
We're winning the money game. Much to everyone's amazement, the Ds have managed to raise nearly as much money as the Rs in this election cycle. What's even more amazing is that we've been more frugal with our money, and now actually maintain a small advantage in cash-on-hand for the remainder of the race (as of August 31st we had $113 million on hand, and Bush had $112 million.).
This is important, since it has allowed us to go head to head in the key battleground states — of which Washington was one until very recently. Part of what we've seen in Washington is the fierce waging of an ad war, followed by a solidifying of public opinion, and the subsequent withdrawal of funds from the race. The GOP has literally given up on many Washington races as unwinnable, and has now moved its money to Nevada and other still-swingy states. This is great news for downticket races in Washington, and proves that having the cash to play major league ball makes a difference.
We're winning the spin. We've seen it in every debate so far — not only did our guys win the debates on points (OK, OK, I accept that Cheney might have won the VP debate-except that he did so by lying about everything, which, call me crazy, is not actually winning), they also won the post-debate spin. For example, an insta-snap poll after the second presidential debate showed that Kerry had a narrow win 47-45. However, a day later, after the news got out that Bush actually did have part-ownership in a lumber company, and everyone realized "Man, he was a jackass when he yelled at that nice Charlie Gibson", and the numbers shifted — to a 15 point win margin for Kerry.
We have the better candidates and messages. Up and down the ticket the race is a measure of one simple fact: Dems tend to be nice people, with logical (if non-sound-bitey) positions. Get the message out, and get our faces on the news, and people see the difference. Don't believe me? Take a look at Barak Obama of Illinois, who will sweep to victory and become the ONLY black Senator in Congress. Or Ginny Schrader in Pennsylvania, who offers that pro-choice district its only pro-choice candidate.
We're learning how to play the Republican game. Call it the rise of the blogosphere, but we've played an important role in dominating spin, making stories get picked up by the So Called Liberal Media, and putting pressure on asshole corporations like Sinclair that threaten to undermine our democratic processes. We're learning how to coordinate our displeasure and effectively execute boycotts and other techniques the conservative right has used for years.
Want proof? Sinclair Broadcasting announced that it was going to force all 60-plus of its affiliates (many in swing states) to air a blatantly anti-Kerry "documentary" right before the election. Thanks to lefty blogs and websites like DailyKos.com and others, we've put together a strong boycott and letter-writing campaign. The result? Sinclair's stock has consistently been pummeled on the markets, and several advertisers have begun to pull their ads.
The Republicans are imploding. It started with the special elections the Rs lost in Kentucky and South Dakota , continued with the Jack Ryan sex-capade scandal in Illinois, and now is manifesting with Bunning, and Thune, and Schrock, and G.W. Bush hisowndamnself. It almost seems that everything that can go wrong for the Republicans, is-in a karma-is-a-bitch kind of way. Bunning is going crazy in Kentucky, and lying about if he used a TelePrompTer in his debate. Anti-gay Schrock in Virginia was outed as a closeted gay man. Ditto David Drier in California. Moral paragon Jim Thune is wrapped up in a voter registration scandal. And our Dear Leader, W, who has impaled foe after foe on the meme of "He's too angry", is now getting shafted as voters realize that he, himself, is too angry and weird to be Commander-in-Chief.
Good always vanquishes Evil. It might sound silly, but Buffy taught me this is true. You may lose some characters you really like along the way, but always, always, always Good triumphs over Evil. Always.
We're going to win, my friends, I promise. But, as with everything, there is a price to pay. That price? We can never become as complacent and detached again. The stakes are too high, and we are only stopping this disaster in action now, at the last minute, before big business and neo-fascists take away our American democracy for good.
I know you're tired — I am, too. But living up to the potential of our democracy is hard work, and your disinterest in it sends our leaders mixed messages, which causes them to fail. Remember what Plato said: "The price that good men pay for not being interested in politics is to be governed by men worse than themselves." It was true in Athens, it was true in Rome, and dammit, it's true here in the Good Ol' US of A.
Work your ass off the next two weeks, and vote for JFK on November 2nd, and let's watch this victory change the face of American politics for good, and for Good.
Three ImaginaryGirls.com wholeheartedly supports this report but opinions expressed are the author's and do not necessarily reflect opinions or policies of the girls {although, as igLiz says, "It doesn't necessarily not reflect our opinions...}"
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